Around 14 million private sector retirees did not receive any increase in their Agirc-Arrco supplementary pension last year, on November 1, 2025. Representatives of trade unions and employers’ organizations were not not reached an agreement during their October 2025 meeting, a first in years. But in 2026, things could change: with the rise in inflation, the revaluation of the supplementary pension is arousing strong expectations.
The decision will be taken by the Agirc-Arrco board of directors, which will meet on October 14, 2026 according to the official Agirc-Arrco calendar. If a valuation is decided, the revaluation will apply from November 1, 2026. It is the four-year national inter-professional agreement (ANI) of October 5, 2023, which runs until December 31, 2026, which sets the framework for this calculation, which we will detail.
The Agirc-Arrco calculation rule
The value of the Agirc-Arrco point changes each year “by following consumer prices excluding tobacco estimated for the current year, less a sustainability factor of 0.40 points”explains the General Secretariat of Agirc-Arrco. The reference retained is the latest forecast published by INSEE for the current yearwhen the board of directors decides. “A priori, this will be the economic report for September”he specifies. That published in June by INSEE, which estimates 2026 inflation at +2%, is therefore not yet the official reference used: it will be revised in September, with a possible slowdown according to the latest available data.
Based on this rule, the starting point for negotiations will be the forecast inflation excluding tobacco for the year, minus 0.4 points. But this is not a fixed figure: the board of directors has room for maneuver. “We can go up to the exact inflation figure, or go down to inflation minus 0.8”adds the General Secretariat of Agirc-Arrco. The final result will therefore depend both on the inflation figure that INSEE will publish in September, but also on the political decision of the board of directors within this margin of discussion. If INSEE confirmed inflation at 2% in September, the basic rule would give a 1.6% revaluation; but the range would be from 1.2% to 2%.
What will happen in October
If the board of directors can modulate its decision, it is subject to a fundamental constraint: Agirc-Arrco must always have a reserve equivalent to six months of retirement expensesprojected over a fifteen-year horizon. “The council must ensure that the cumulative cost of the revaluation, over fifteen years, does not call into question this golden rule”specifies Agirc-Arrco. In short: if long-term reserves were weakened, the council could choose a lower rate within the authorized margin.
