After the tax declaration campaign, taxpayers will soon know the verdict. Like every summer, the tax administration will compare the tax that should have been paid in 2025 with the amounts already deducted at source. Thus, some will receive a transfer from the tax authorities in the coming weeks, while others will have to pay additional tax. In 2025, approximately 13 million tax households thus benefited from a refundfor an average amount of 1,017 eurosaccording to figures communicated to Capital.fr by the General Directorate of Public Finances (DGFiP). A far from negligible sum for many households.
Conversely, several million taxpayers will discover a balance to pay on their tax notice. Because withholding tax does not always allow the tax to be perfectly adjusted to the real situation of the household. An increase in income, the receipt of new rental income, the departure of an adult child from the tax household or even a tax credit wrongly received can create a gap between the amounts already paid and the tax ultimately due.
2026 tax notice: which taxpayers will be reimbursed?
The DGFiP does not yet have a detailed analysis of the 2026 tax notice campaign. “The 2026 declarations and notices database does not allow us to provide an analysis of this campaign at this stage”specifies the administration to Capital.fr. To profile the taxpayers most likely to be reimbursed or, on the contrary, to have to pay additional tax, it therefore refers to a study carried out in 2022 based on 2019 incomecorresponding to the 2020 tax notice campaign. The DGFiP specifies that the characteristics of the beneficiaries of a refund or a balance to be paid “should change little” over the years.
This study therefore shows that 11.1 million tax households, i.e. nearly 54% of taxpayers analyzed had received a refundfor an average amount of 675 euros. Conversely, 9.4 million households had to pay additional taxthe average amount of which reached 1,346 euros. The taxpayers reimbursed were more often retirees or households who had experienced a drop in income, while the balances to be paid more often concerned employees whose income had increased during the year.
Why will some taxpayers still have to pay additional tax?
Withholding tax brings the payment of tax closer to the receipt of income, but it is not always perfectly adjusted to the taxpayer’s real situation. The DGFiP cites several typical situations. “Generally, users are affected by a balance to pay in the following situations: the user has had an increase in their income during the year; the user had new income without communicating it to the administration ; an adult child has left the tax home; the user did not think of refusing the advance tax credit even though he no longer benefited from the tax credit concerned. »
Soa salary increase, an exceptional bonus, the start of an independent activity or even the rental of accommodation can result in additional tax if these changes have not been reported sufficiently early.
The most common errors that lead to a tax catch-up
For the tax administration, the main cause of the balances to be paid remains the lack of updating of the taxpayer’s situation. “Most of the time, a balance due islinked to the absence of declaration of an increase in income or new income by the user in the year of withholding tax”insists the DGFiP. The departure of an adult child from the tax home, a divorce, a marriage or the receipt of property income not taken into account in the tax rate can also explain the difference between the tax already paid and that ultimately due.
2026 tax notice: refund and deduction dates to remember
Taxpayers receiving a refund will receive their transfer in two waves. According to the DGFiP, “reimbursements will be made for some of the users on July 24 and the July 31 for another part. For those who must pay additional tax, the schedule depends on the amount owed. “The samples will be taken on September 25, 2026 for amounts less than or equal to 300 euros »specifies the administration.
Beyond 300 euros, the payment will be automatically split: “the samples will be taken September 25, October 26, November 26 and December 28, 2026 for sums greater than 300 euros which are spread over four installments.
What to check upon receipt of your tax notice?
Above all, the DGFiP recommends carefully checking the information contained in the notice. “You must first check your situation (amount reimbursed or amount to be paid) and check the accuracy of their bank details »she emphasizes. This verification is particularly important to avoid any problems during a refund or direct debit.
What to do if you have a large balance to pay?
Taxpayers facing a significant tax catch-up generally have a little flexibility when the amount exceeds 300 euros. “If the sum is greater than 300 euros, it is in principle subject to a spread over four installments »recalls the DGFiP. The administration also recommends “check the accuracy of the bank details on the notice and ensure that the bank account is correctly funded on the dates indicated to be able to benefit from the spread of payment”. This last recommendation could avoid many disappointments at the start of the school year.
