![The European population is expected to decline by the end of the century despite immigration The European population is expected to decline by the end of the century despite immigration](https://media.lesechos.com/api/v1/images/view/664624eb588e8f107a32fc2c/1280x720/01101114786101-web-tete.jpg)
Europe’s population is aging and is likely entering an inexorable long-term decline. The publication by the European statistical office, Eurostat, of the latest demographic developments in the European Union (EU) on Wednesday confirms a trend that has already been known for several years.
In its projections, Eurostat is hardly optimistic. What will the face of the EU be by 2050 and 2100? The European population will increase until 2025 before beginning a decline. There would be only 447.8 million inhabitants in 2050, compared to 448.8 million at the end of 2022. And we would fall to only 419.4 million in 2100. By this deadline, the arrivals of migrants (98 million) in within the EU would not compensate for the natural demographic decline (-125 million) generated by a higher number of deaths than births.
A natural decline over the past 10 years
Certainly, in 2022, the population of the Union increased again after two years of decline linked to the Covid pandemic (+2 million people). The entry of migrants into the Union was able to compensate for the natural decline in population. A decline that began in 2012 when, each year, the Union recorded more deaths than births. The massive influx of Ukrainians having obtained temporary protection status in EU member states following Russia’s aggression from February 2022 largely explains the trend observed.
419.4 million
The population of the European Union, according to Eurostat, in 2100 compared to 447.8 in 2022.
Germany, with 84.4 million inhabitants, has retained its rank as the most populous country in Europe with the highest population density (237 people per km2) on the territory.
France (68.2 million and 107.4 people per km2) was in second position followed by Italy (59 million and 198 people). If these first two countries still recorded an increase in their population, this is not the case in Italy which has suffered a decline since 2015.
The East and the South are struggling
Over the last twenty years, nine European countries (Greece, Hungary, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Croatia) have also recorded a decline in their population. Also, it is not surprising to learn that more than 3 million Romanians, almost 1.5 million Italians and as many Poles live outside their country of origin in another EU country.
21.3%
proportion of elderly people The share of people aged 65 and over increased in Europe from 16.2% in 2003 to 21.3% in 2022
Over the last twenty years, the proportion of people aged over 80 has increased in all European countries, from 3.7% in 2003 to 6% at the end of 2022. For people aged over 65, the The evolution is even more spectacular since their share increased from 16.2% to 21.3% over the same period. Consequence: the median age has increased in Europe to stand at 44.5 years at the start of 2023 compared to 39 twenty years earlier.
Fertility at half mast
In this context, the trend observed for more than ten years is confirmed. Europeans die more than they have children.
The crude birth rate (number of births – excluding infant mortality – per 1,000 people) is down sharply to 8.7 in 2022 compared to more than 10 at the start of the 2000s. Only four countries have seen a slight increase in their rates (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary).
1.7
The fertility rate of France. France is in first place in Europe but its fertility rate is below the generation replacement rate of 2.1.
All the others deplore a decline, particularly in Spain (6.9), Portugal (8) and Italy (6.7). France, also in decline, still remains above the European average (10.7) like Ireland and Sweden. With regard to the fertility rate, all European countries are in decline and below the generation renewal threshold (2.1 children). With 1.79, France occupies first place ahead of Romania (1.71). Italy (1.24), Spain (1.16), Poland (1.29) and Greece (1.32) have particularly catastrophic rates.
Although the EU has more women (229 million) than men (219 million), they have children at a later age. The average age of mothers is increasing: it was 29.7 years at the end of 2022 compared to 28.8 years in 2013. Above all, the share of births to mothers aged 40 and over increased from 2.5% of the total in 2002 at 6.0%.