“What we are seeing on the French real estate market today has never been seen since Foncia has existed for 54 years”warned Zahir Keenoo, CEO of Foncia, today. Indeed, the real estate market continues to decline in the first half of 2026against a backdrop of structural crisis. The number of transactions in the former fell by 7%, and compromise cancellations increased by 11%. “We can say that one case in 10 goes to the carpet »he emphasizes. The reasons? Concerns about the conditions of the real estate market, but also tightening borrowing conditions and more loan refusals.
Worse still, the rental offer has reached its lowest level since the creation of Foncia 54 years ago. The president thus wishes to warn of the rental housing crisis which is taking hold, “structural, deep and lasting”. The group thus lists 225,000 candidate files tenants deemed qualified (with a file which should be accepted) since January, or 30% more than last year, but only 8,400 homes are available for rental nationally… including only 70 in Paris. For students who want to settle in at the start of the school year, this is dramatic.
A dry rental market
The figures from the half-yearly report confirm the tension: tenant vacancies fall by 7%, re-rentals by 1%, and turnover rate drops to 19.7%down 2.5 points over one year after a drop of 4 points in 2024. This means that fewer tenants are leaving their homes or trying to buy property themselves. The occupancy rate of the stock managed by Foncia reached 90.9%, down slightly by 0.1 point, and the stock of available housing represents only 2.5% of the national stock, compared to less than 1.5% in Paris, Lyon and Bordeaux.
Result, “housing becomes a social blocking factorweakening of purchasing power »he warns. “This causes obstacles at each stage of life: we have hundreds of thousands of students trying to find their first apartment and who have to resolve to move away from big cities or to share accommodation, then a reduction in professional mobility, and family projects that are postponed by several years, or even canceled… ”, regrets the President of Foncia. The disengagement of private landlords due to changes in taxation, in particular, or new DPE rules could explain a good part of the shortage. “Contrary to popular belief, many landlords in France are retirees who cannot afford to carry out work, and prefer to withdraw their accommodation from rental”.
A circle of mistrust that blocks buyers
On the purchasing side, according to Foncia, the crisis in the real estate market is illustrated by a circle of mistrust. Economic uncertainties push households to postpone or abandon their projects, which weighs on loan conditionswhich in turn are slowly deteriorating and primarily penalize the poorest households, in a climate fueled by geopolitical tensions. Each factor fuels the next, pushing us deeper into crisis.
“Our real estate consultants all say it: the visits are there, the projects are there, but the decision is no longer made. It’s not a supply or demand problem, it’s a trust problem. And this confidence will only return with a stabilized economic and political environment »explains Jordan Frarier, President of Foncia Transaction, Development and Rental. Yet, “the feasibility of a project must take precedence over market expectations “, he assures. Especially since, traditionally, summer is the time for shopping before the start of the school year.
But borrowing rates don’t help. For a monthly payment of 1,000 euros per monthborrowing capacity increased from 216,400 euros in 2021 (when the average rate was only 1.05%), at 169,000 euros in 2024 (rate peaking at 3.72%). A slight relaxation appeared in 2025, with a rate falling to 3.09% and capacity increasing to 178,500 euros, but the movement was reversed again in 2026: the rates rise to 3.25% and the borrowing capacity falls to 176,300 euros. “If there are projects, it is especially now that they must be carried out, because October, November, we don’t know how things will turn out “, concludes Jordan Frarier.
