The duties launched by the United States towards European products risk translating into a billionaire tired for Italian families. To launch the alarm is the Codacons, which estimated an increase in annual expenditure of up to 4.2 billion euros, if the protectionist measures had direct repercussions on retail prices and inflation.
The projections of the consumer association are based on a regime scenario, in which the lower exports to the USA – not compensated by new commercial outlets in third countries – would force Italian and European companies to raise prices on the internal market to contain losses. “Some sectors, such as luxury, will suffer less than the duties because of the low elasticity of the demand, but strategic sectors such as automotive and food will suffer a very hard blow”, explains Codacons.
The domino effect could lead to a general increase in prices, with an impact on Italian inflation estimated between +0.3% and +0.5%. In concrete terms, it means an increase in the annual expenditure equal, respectively, to 2.55 and 4.23 billion euros. The food sector is among the most exposed, given the weight of agri -food exports to the United States: an increase in retail prices of food and drinks even of 1% would translate into a spending aggravation of 1.62 billion for Italian families.
But that’s not all. According to Codacons, a possible surge in inflation in the euro area could push the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. A scenario that would also hit those who have contracted variable rate mortgages, further aggravating the family budget. Ultimately, the risk is that the US-EU commercial clash turns into a new ballast for the Italian economy, already tested by years of crisis and increases.
