For the first time since September 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key rates by 0.25 points. This decision comes in a context of revived inflation in the euro zone, increased to 3.2% in Mayagainst a backdrop of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices. Enough to raise fears of a new turn of the screw for real estate borrowers, already tested by two years of rising rates.
However, the banks do not seem ready to turn off the credit tap. In this month of June, they are still displaying stable scales and offensive commercial policies to capture the right files before the summer break. The real effects of the Frankfurt decision should above all be read on the July scaleswhich will set the tone for the second half of the year for household borrowing capacity.
Banks still on the offensive despite the rise in rates
Despite the ECB’s gesture, establishments are not rushing to raise their scales. “Banks should limit the repercussions of the ECB’s rate hike because in June, they are maintaining an offensive commercial policy to attract borrowers before the summer break, with average rates stable at 3.30% over 15 years and 3.5% over 20 years in June »observes Julie Bachet, general director of Vousfinancer.
This strategy is also explained by “credit production still sluggish since the spring, which encourages them to remain attractive rather than hastily tightening their scales”. In other words, the banks’ priority remains to finance solid profiles to make up for the delay accumulated since the start of the year, rather than immediately passing on the increase in key rates. “The increase in ECB rates should therefore not result in an immediate shock to the rates offered to individuals”reassures Julie Bachet.
July, test month for scales and borrowing capacity
The real question is the continuation of the movement initiated by the ECB. “The extent of the repercussion on credit scales will depend above all on the next decisions of the ECB: if it is only an isolated gesture, the impact will remain limited, but a more marked cycle of increases would weigh more on the borrowing capacity of households”warns Julie Bachet. The July scales will therefore be closely scrutinized. They will say whether the banks are content with symbolic adjustments or whether a clearer movement is emerging for the second half of the year.
For the moment, several signals tend to favor a scenario of contained growth. “The signals are rather encouraging: the OAT 10 years relaxed at 3.60% and the prospect of a peace agreement between Iran and the United States eases the tensions that were weighing on the markets. If this dynamic is confirmed, it could limit 0.10%, or even avoid any significant rise in credit rates in the coming weeks”believes Julie Bachet. Enough to give candidates for accession a little breathing space before the start of the school year, even if the window of opportunity could close in the event of further monetary tightening in the fall.
