If the economic integration of the former Eastern European countries is a source of satisfaction for the leaders of the European Union, the same is not true on the political and diplomatic level. The “illiberal” turn claimed by Viktor Orban’s Hungary is all the more worrying, in Brussels and in European capitals, as it risks spreading to other democracies in central and eastern Europe which have joined the Union twenty years ago.
The year 2023 was the illustration of this. In Poland, voters put an end to eight years of government by PiS, the ultra-conservative nationalist party which multiplied the subjects of conflict at the table of Twenty-Seven. Relief in Brussels, Paris, Berlin. But at the same time, the Slovaks had Robert Fico at the head of the government, who in a few years slipped from social democracy towards populism tinged with nationalism and conservatism.
Justice reforms
Like his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban, Robert Fico stood out with positions hostile to aid to Ukraine. His judicial reforms and his desire to reduce the independence of public broadcast media raise fears that Bratislava will take the same direction as Budapest.
“There are similarities between the two Prime Ministers, but Viktor Orban is in a much stronger position than Robert Fico for the moment,” explains Lukas Macek, of the Jacques-Delors Institute. The Hungarian leader reigns supreme in parliament where his party, Fidesz, has enjoyed an absolute majority for almost fifteen years. In Slovakia, on the contrary, Fico governs a much more fragile coalition.
Respect for universal suffrage
The emergence of these leaders poses new questions within the Twenty-Seven. Firstly because the European Union decides to sanction them for breaching the principles of the rule of law. Recently, Brussels can even freeze European funds intended for these countries, as it did for Poland and Hungary. “This raises the question of the right of the European Union to dictate what is fair to sovereign countries,” analyzes Tim Haughton, professor of political science at the University of Birmingham.
“This is potentially a problem, because the European Union must also respect the sovereignty of member countries and governments elected by universal suffrage,” continues Lukas Macek. On the other hand, the Twenty-Seven have very strict requirements in terms of the rule of law with regard to candidate countries for the Union such as the Western Balkan States or Ukraine. A position that is difficult to maintain if states that are themselves members of the EU no longer respect these same rules.
Czechia, Croatia, Bulgaria…
The war in Ukraine aggravates the situation, because both Hungary and Slovakia defend positions hostile to kyiv, or even favorable to Moscow. Viktor Orban always ended up voting for sanctions against the Kremlin, aid measures for Ukraine and even the opening of negotiations with kyiv with a view to joining the European Union. Will it be the same if it is supported by other member states, which has not been the case until now?
After Slovakia, eyes are turning to the Czechia, where legislative elections are being held next year. Andrej Babis, another populist leader with an ambiguous speech on Ukraine, is also preparing his return to power. In Croatia, recent elections showed that a good part of the population supported former Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic, who does not want his country to be “dragged” into the Ukrainian conflict. More or less pro-Russian parties are also powerful in Bulgaria, a country plagued by political instability and repeated elections.