Since February 28 and the launch of the American-Israeli strikes on Iran, the CAC 40 has lost 7%, falling back below the threshold of 8,000 points which it had not crossed downwards since November 2025. For many investors, this period of war is a risk for their money: they are therefore seeking to mitigate the damage. But protecting your wallet cannot be improvised. There are many tools, which for some can be difficult to use.
Gold and the dollar: still safe havens?
Gold is often the first reflex in times of crisis. And the figures seem to prove him right: over one year, the yellow metal increased by 51%. And since the start of the year, by almost 10%by reaching a historic record by exceeding $5,500 per ounce in January 2026. Except that looking more closely, we see a paradox: in one year, gold also suffered two big falls. One of more than 10% at the end of January, and a second less violent in mid-March. So, if we look at the price of gold over a month, it remains negative.
So, still a safe haven? This second drop is in fact explained by the war. When it raises fears of lasting inflation (and this is the case, with oil soaring), the markets anticipate that the American Federal Reserve will maintain, or even raise, its key rates. With high rates, American bonds become more attractive than gold, which does not pay a dividend. At the same time, the dollar strengthens mechanically in times of crisiswhich penalizes gold denominated in this currency.
So, what to do? If you had bought gold before the conflict, the gain is still there. If you buy now, after a 10% correction, you are betting on the strength of gold, but also on a prolongation of the conflict without a rise in rates.
And the dollar, then? As we have just seen, it is strengthening at the moment. The logic is simple: in times of crisis, capital flees to the greenback. Is it necessary to buy any? Please note that if you already have a ETF World or S&P 500you are already exposed to it, and the rise of the dollar mechanically cushions part of your losses on stocks. But if the conflict ends, the correction could happen quickly, so no speculation.
Should you bet on the downside?
The BX4, its full name Amundi CAC 40 Daily (-2x) Inverse UCITS ETFis the investment that everyone cites when the markets are falling. Its principle is simple: it progresses when the CAC 40 declines, with leverage multiplied by two. If the CAC loses 1% during the day, the BX4 gains 2%… and vice versa.
This lever makes it a formidable tool : if you fear a drop in your portfolio of 10,000 euros, buying 5,000 euros of BX4 covers you, in theory, entirely. But be careful, there is a world of difference between theory and practice. This type of tool is dangerous: over 5 years, the BX4 recorded a loss of around 70%, while the CAC40 took around 30%. It is therefore out of the question to keep it in the long term. In addition, have you noticed an inconsistency in the figures we have just seen? The BX4 fell more than double the CAC40 over this period. This is because of the erosion of leverage over time. To put it simply, the BX4 recalculates its performance every day compared to the day before, not compared to a fixed starting point, so each round trip increases the loss. This is the problem with all leveraged ETFs.
This is why the BX4 is not a long-term protection tool : it is a very short-term tactical bet. We keep it for a few days, two weeks maximum, when we anticipate a specific drop in the CAC. And as soon as we reach our goal, we sell.
TotalEnergies: the big winner of this crisis
This is the surprise of the start of 2026. TotalEnergies has gained more than 40% since January 1, 2026to exceed 81 dollars on March 30, its historic record, while the rest of the CAC 40 lost 7%. The oil major has clearly benefited from the surge in the price of a barrel, which automatically increases its revenues. The group itself confirmed this to its shareholders: “A higher oil price more than offsets lower production in the Middle East. » In 2025, it was the opposite: cheap oil had weighed on its results.
So, is there still time to buy some? The Total action allows you to position yourself on a value decorrelated from the rest of the CAC 40with, in addition, a growing dividend for 25 years. But be careful: with +40% in three months, a good part of the favorable scenario is already underway. If the conflict subsides and the barrel rolls back, action can correct quickly.
