There is no peace for Kyiv. Ukraine has just entered its fifth year of full-scale war and the capital was once again the target of a heavy attack on the night between 25 and 26 February by the Russians with missiles and drones that damaged residential buildings in several neighborhoods and caused at least twenty injuries.
While the Russian offensive shows no sign of a change of pace, The third round of talks between the delegations of Kyiv and Washington began today in Geneva. The US is pushing for a conclusion soon, but so far the talks have not produced significant progress and the negotiations are at a standstill and the territorial issue – together with that of security guarantees for Ukraine – continues to represent the crucial issue, difficult to resolve: Moscow’s request remains the same, that is, control of the entire Donetsk region, currently occupied for around 80 percent of the territory.
But, after more than four years of war, what is the situation on the ground? Who is really winning? The answer is given by the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI): based on data from the Center for strategic and international studies, the human cost paid by Russia with the invasion is very high: by 2022 Russian forces would have suffered around 1.2 million casualties in deaths and injuries in Ukraine. The casualties in the field could reach 325 thousand.
Ukraine, for its part, has almost 180 thousand military losses, including dead and missing, to which must be added the enormous civilian losses. Despite propaganda saying otherwise, Russia has not made great progress in the field: during 2025 Russia has conquered less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory, concentrated in the East. After more than four years of war, Moscow has not achieved the minimum objectives set, namely the conquest of the entire Donbas and the change of government in Kyiv, with the imposition of a pro-Russian regime.
The data show that, in the largest and bloodiest conflict in Europe since the Second World War, it is civilians who pay the highest price:2025 was the deadliest year for civilians. According to researchers from the international organization Action Against Armed Violence (Aoav), Ukrainian civilian victims increased by 26% in 2025, reflecting the increase in Russian attacks on the country’s cities and infrastructure. According to the NGO’s data, 2,248 civilians were killed and 12,493 injured due to the raids in Ukraine. The worst attack against civilians occurred in Dnipro on June 24, when Russian attacks hit a passenger train, apartments and schools, killing 21 people and wounding 314, including 38 children.
As the Community of Sant’Egidio highlights, the majority of civilian deaths concern the elderly. In total, since 2022 there will be more than 15 thousand civilians killed and over 41 thousand injured. The population has grown from 41.5 million in 2021 to around 29 million today. Almost 6 million refugees live abroad, with the consequence that many families have broken up and entire urban centers have changed their face. Fragility is growing: in 2026 over 10 million people will need humanitarian aid.
