Average mortgage rates are set at 3.27% over 15 years, 3.42% over 20 years And 3.50% over 25 yearswith variations of less than 0.05 points compared to April. Except that this moment of calm could only be temporary. If the ECB chose to maintain its key rates at 2% on April 30, 2026, it revised its forecasts for 2026 inflation upwards: 2.6% compared to 1.9% anticipated at the start of the year. Bond markets now anticipate one or two key rate increases between now and the end of the year. If this scenario is confirmed, real estate rates could start to rise again in June.
Why does war influence rates?
The conflict in the Middle East is causing oil prices to soar, and this is fueling inflation well beyond the price of gasoline: raw materials, transportation, supply chains, food. Pierre Chapon, co-founder of Pretto, sums it up like this: “The war in the Middle East, although it changes every day, has generally driven up oil prices and this has consequences on supply chains. Inflation is happening everywhere, beyond just the price at the pump. »
While it would be easy to draw a parallel with 2022, when the war in Ukraine had propelled real estate rates from 1% to nearly 4% in eighteen months, our expert tempers: “The initial context is very different. In 2022, we went as far as real estate rates of less than 1%, with very dynamic economic activity, post-Covid catch-up, strong demand. Today, theeconomic activity is slowerwe have customs duties, unemployment which weighs heavily. There is no catching up to do. » The proportions therefore still remain moderate.
Banks that “yoyo”
Faced with this context, not all banks adopt the same behavior. Some have significantly raised their gates in Aprilout of caution in the face of bond tensions, then reversed course in May to recover market share. The CCF, for example, is lowering its scales by 0.10 to 0.25 points depending on the profile, almost completely erasing its previous increase. Conversely, Crédit Agricole Île-de-France rose by 0.10 points.
For Pierre Chapon, this “yo-yo” on the scales “reflects the current market well: a real estate loan managed very closely by the banks, which can quickly return to the market when they want to capture files”. The watchword in this landscape? Compare, “and compare at the right time”insists Pierre Chapon.
May 2026, a window not to be missed
For someone who is looking for a property, Pierre Chapon’s message is clear: “There is a small break in the increase in May, therefore a window. You don’t have to hang around. » A buyer who signs his compromise in June could indeed face an increase when he submits his financing application, if inflation sets in further.
However, don’t panic. A couple earning 4,000 euros net per month can still borrow 279,000 euros over 25 years for a monthly payment of 1,400 euros. If rates rise by 0.10 points, the monthly payment increases by 14 euros. This is not likely to derail a project. “Rates are increasing, but they remain good. The increases are not likely to make a project uninteresting. We have to keep a cool head and tell ourselves that we can still find 3.3 or 3.4% over 25 years, at a fixed rate”. The expert concludes as follows: “In a context of uncertainty about pensions and the future, buying real estate in these conditions remains a good thing”.
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