At first glance, the figures published Wednesday by the Banque de France are not so bad: 12 billion euros of new real estate loans granted in April, excluding renegotiations. It is 600 million less than in Marchbut still above the monthly average since January (11.8 billion). But Pierre Chapon, co-founder of the broker Pretto, recalls that “these amounts correspond for project finalizationstherefore to compromises signed at the beginning of the year ». “It’s a less interesting signal than the beginnings of projects… and the beginnings of projects are soft »he analyzes.
Thus, the trough could become more pronounced. “The month of May was quite soft, this is evident almost everywhere, among my colleagues too”he continues. The 2025 recovery is running out of steam, at the worst possible time: “The high season for looking for a real estate loan is from May to July, to have the keys at the start of the school year “, underlines the professional. “We should have seen many more people take actioncontact brokers. We don’t see it. »
Stable rates, but low morale
However, the average real estate loan rate recorded by the Banque de France is remained stable at 3.22% in Apriland the Crédit Logement CSA Observatory measures 3.25% in May. An increase which remains very modest. “Rates have a more psychological than financial impact”believes Pierre Chapon. “They have not increased that much: we are still borrowing at 3.2%, 3.3% or 3.4%, while the State borrows more expensively. » In fact, the 10-year OAT, the French debt which serves as a reference for banks, moved between 3.70% and 3.80% in May, under the effect of the war in the Middle East and the return of inflation.
And on the banks’ side, competition still plays a role: “This month, I even see some banks lowering their rates to attract customers”observes the broker. Some establishments have chosen not to touch their scales despite the increase in OATs, and are relaunching targeted offers to attract young professionals and first-time buyers. “I’m not worried about the ability of banks to be present and to offer reasonable rates. But in terms of consumer sentiment, we should continue on this somewhat sluggish path, I see no reason for that to change”warns the credit expert.
A soft market… therefore favorable to buyers
Thus, for potential buyers who are worried about the economic situation, Pierre Chapon wants to be reassuring: “We have the impression that the world is unstable, but that’s geopolitics, current events. If we look at the real estate subject, it’s pretty stable : rates which move little and remain attractive despite inflation, banks which have plenty of liquidity to lend, visibility on credit »summarizes the co-founder of Pretto.
And it is precisely this gap between a functioning market and wait-and-see buyers that creates the opportunity. “When the market is soft, buyers have a lot of power. Those who have prepared their financing well can negotiate, it’s a good context”underlines Pierre Chapon. Faced with sellers who see fewer visits, a solid file (contribution, bank agreement in principle, financing completed) becomes an argument to lower the price. His final advice applies to those paralyzed by war and inflation: “A real estate purchase, it’s long termand in France the rates are fixed. You have to see far. When you are a buyer today, you hold the cards in your hands. » Let’s not forget that when rents increase, the repayment of a loan remains fixed.
